Operational and Technological Determinants of On-Time Delivery Performance in Urban Freight Distribution: Evidence from Indonesian Cities
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61978/logistica.v4i2.1739Keywords:
urban freight distribution, on-time delivery, traffic congestion, route optimization, real-time tracking, binary logistic regression, last-mile logisticsAbstract
Urban freight distribution has grown increasingly complex due to e-commerce growth, rising customer expectations, and traffic congestion. This study investigates operational and technological determinants of on-time delivery performance in Indonesian urban freight distribution, evaluating the relative contribution of operational, environmental, technological, and customer-related factors. A quantitative cross-sectional design used 480 delivery observations from Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, and Medan. On-time delivery was coded as a binary outcome, with explanatory variables including congestion index, departure delay, loading time, number of stops, distance, peak-hour operation, rainfall, route optimization, real-time tracking, and customer availability, analyzed through binary logistic regression. Results show an overall on-time delivery rate of 90.63%. Traffic congestion was the strongest constraint, significantly reducing punctuality odds with each unit increase. Route optimization and real-time tracking significantly improved on-time delivery probability, demonstrating that digital logistics technologies enhance reliability through better planning and visibility. Delivery distance showed a marginal negative effect, while departure delay, loading time, peak-hour operation, rainfall, and customer availability were not significant. Number of stops showed a positive association, interpreted as reflecting efficient route configuration rather than a direct causal benefit. The study concludes that delivery reliability depends on the interaction between traffic conditions and digital logistics capabilities, with route optimization and real-time tracking mitigating congestion's adverse effects—offering practical guidance for improving urban freight performance in developing-country contexts.
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