An Exploratory Analysis of Foodgrain Growth and Fertilizer Dynamics Across Phases

Abstract

Since independence, Indian foodgrain has seen substantial modifications throughout many developmental periods, including the pre-Green Revolution era, the Green Revolution, the era of globalization, and the more recent technology-oriented phase. Initially, India relied largely on food grain imports. However, the Green Revolution brought high-yielding cultivars, increased fertilizer usage, and expanded irrigation, resulting in significant productivity improvements, particularly in rice and wheat, and a move toward self-sufficiency. This period also created regional differences in agricultural performance. Post-1991, the globalisation era integrated Indian foodgrain into the international market. While this expanded export opportunities and facilitated access to new technologies, it also increased vulnerability to global price fluctuations and created challenges for small and marginal farmers. The technology-oriented phase further emphasised mechanisation, digital tools, and input intensification. This study examines the long-term growth performance of Indian foodgrain from 1951 to 2022 using secondary data on cereals, nutritional cereals, pulses and total foodgrain. The research is divided into four periods: the Pre-Green Revolution Phase, the Green Revolution and Policy Consolidation, the Globalization Era, and the Technology Era. To assess growth dynamics, the study employs regression models to estimate the Regression-based Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), with corresponding β coefficients, t-statistics, and p-values to determine statistical significance. The results reveal a structural shift from area-led to productivity-driven growth, influenced by increased irrigation and evolving fertilizer consumption patterns, including Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), and Potassium (K). The study highlights phase-wise variation in growth rates, confirming statistically significant improvements in agricultural performance, particularly during the Technology Era.